Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.115621 0.128854 0.142565 0.157800 0.174222 0.191358 0.210558
2024-10-06 0.097532 0.117429 0.139201 0.164648 0.193426 0.224815 0.261493
2024-10-13 0.082905 0.107013 0.134696 0.168483 0.208245 0.253194 0.307474
2024-10-20 0.071434 0.098254 0.130413 0.171174 0.220794 0.278575 0.350246
2024-10-27 0.062348 0.090954 0.126636 0.173406 0.232039 0.302062 0.390889
2024-11-03 0.059497 0.090996 0.131533 0.186067 0.255980 0.341069 0.450811
2024-11-10 0.052529 0.084674 0.127487 0.186718 0.264472 0.360991 0.487620
2024-11-17 0.047492 0.080370 0.125551 0.189645 0.275555 0.384043 0.528479
2024-11-24 0.042470 0.075486 0.122297 0.190353 0.283425 0.402891 0.564158
2024-12-01 0.041109 0.075843 0.126256 0.200888 0.304461 0.438982 0.622378
2024-12-08 0.039789 0.076074 0.129922 0.211005 0.325067 0.474823 0.680840
2024-12-15 0.036130 0.072210 0.127238 0.211817 0.332750 0.493582 0.717203
2024-12-22 0.031665 0.066784 0.122127 0.209274 0.336256 0.507645 0.748853
2024-12-29 0.030452 0.066763 0.125332 0.219137 0.357620 0.546433 0.814367
2025-01-05 0.028334 0.064938 0.125553 0.224490 0.372674 0.576969 0.869489
2025-01-12 0.026066 0.062575 0.124704 0.228083 0.385189 0.604197 0.920593
2025-01-19 0.023892 0.060126 0.123492 0.230959 0.396615 0.630037 0.970164
2025-01-26 0.024155 0.062403 0.130307 0.246668 0.427419 0.683581 1.058559
2025-02-02 0.021901 0.059418 0.127898 0.247492 0.435864 0.705609 1.103726
2025-02-09 0.020298 0.057561 0.127290 0.251113 0.448525 0.733764 1.157735
2025-02-16 0.018447 0.054944 0.125116 0.251990 0.456903 0.755809 1.203420
2025-02-23 0.018393 0.056258 0.130128 0.264970 0.484239 0.805685 1.288922
2025-03-02 0.018257 0.057359 0.134763 0.277401 0.510916 0.854928 1.374065